He he, I’ve scared you

And it’s no wonder, Federal Canadian elections  happen terrifyingly often (4 in the last 5 years if my memory serves me) because of a succession of minority governments, the first few of which were unstable.  While the first Harper Conservative government was a very stable minority (longest lasting minority ever), Harper’s new majority (which is just a few seats shy of majority rule) is less stable than his old one, with the Liberals determined to win back some pride by defeating the Conservatives in the House (which they need the assistance of the Bloc Quebecois and New Democratic Party to do).

But Canada did not actually go to the polls today, just four ridings in a by-election.

The 4 vacant ridings at stake:

• Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière du loup (Quebec, formerly held by the Bloc Quebecois)
• Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley (Nova Scotia, formerly held by an Independent no longer running)
• Hochelaga (Quebec, formerly held by the Bloc Quebecois)
• New Westminster-Coquitlam (British Columbia, formerly held by the New Democratic Party)

So what happened?  Pretty much what was expected:

• Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière du loup (Quebec, formerly held by the Bloc Quebecois CONSERVATIVE GAIN)
• Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley (Nova Scotia, formerly held by an Independent no longer running CONSERVATIVE GAIN)
• Hochelaga (Quebec, formerly held by the Bloc Quebecois BQ HOLD)
• New Westminster-Coquitlam (British Columbia, formerly held by the New Democratic Party NDP HOLD)

Before the by-elections:

• Conservatives (143)
• Liberals (77)
• Bloc Québécois (47)
• New Democrats (36)
• Independent (1)
• Vacant (4)

After (if the numbers hold):

• Conservatives (145)
• Liberals (77)
• Bloc Québécois (48)
• New Democrats (37)
• Independent (1)

That’s out of 308 seats currently in Federal Parliament.  The Liberals are less one seat because they hold the Speaker of the House, who is only called upon for a tie-breaker.  That means that the Conservatives would have to have 154 seats to gain Majority Governance.

With the NDP abstaining from some house motions, the Conservatives have solid control of the House despite the fact that the House was set to fall this time last year shortly after the 40th General Election to a coalition of the Liberals and the NDP.

What is really different about this time around is that the Liberals weren’t even in the race, placing 3rd in all races.  Apparently Ignatieff’s office started releasing excuses before the polls were closed.